Kazhydromet will present a drought forecast for May on April 23. In the meantime, forecasters state that the fields went into winter with a low supply of moisture, and in winter the level of precipitation in many areas was also below the average annual values. This was announced by the General Director of the RSE "Kazhydromet" Danara Alimbayeva, speaking at the conference-contracting "Seed Day" Tukym-2022 ".
“According to the results of a survey conducted in October-November last year, low moisture reserves in the arable soil layer from 0 to 20 centimeters were noted throughout the country. Weak autumn moisture is caused by hot weather in the previous growing season and active evaporation of moisture from the soil, as well as a small amount of precipitation that fell before the onset of frost,” said Danara Alimbaeva.
The distribution of stocks in a meter-long soil layer was heterogeneous. Moisture deficit has developed in most of the North Kazakhstan, Kostanay, Aktobe, West Kazakhstan and Zhambyl regions. At the same time, good autumn moisture was observed in certain areas of Akmola, Pavlodar, Karaganda, East Kazakhstan, Almaty and Turkestan regions.
“Against the general background of moisture deficit in the main grain-growing regions, the graph of winter precipitation amounts looks unoptimistic. The norm of precipitation was significantly exceeded only in the East Kazakhstan region. More than the average annual precipitation in the West Kazakhstan, Aktobe regions. In Kostanay, Pavlodar - about the norm.
In the rest of the territory, precipitation during the winter fell below the norm. Moreover, in some areas of the North-Kazakhstan, Turkestan, Almaty regions, it fell below the norm by 30%,” said the general director of Kazhydromet.
She drew attention to the Mangistau region, where in June last year there was a complete drying of the soil. Due to drought and lack of fodder in 2021, there was a loss of livestock in the region. In winter, the situation did not smooth out: only 29% of the climatic norm fell. At the same time, for example, in the neighboring Atyrau region there are no problems with precipitation, they even fell a little more than the norm. As for the Mangistau region, weather forecasters expect an early spring drought here this spring.
As of February 10, in Pavlodar, North-Kazakhstan, Kostanay, Aktobe, West-Kazakhstan regions, snow reserves were mostly close to the long-term average, but in some areas, moisture reserves do not exceed half of long-term values. In Akmola, Karaganda, Almaty, East Kazakhstan regions, on average, the water reserve in snow is from 51 to 80% of the long-term reserves on this date. And in some places there is no snow at all.
According to Kazhydromet, it is practically not worth counting on soil moisture due to snow in Zhambyl, Turkestan, Kyzylorda, Mangistau and Atyrau regions.
Also, forecasters do not exclude repeated low water this year. An increased risk is already seen in Almaty, Zhambyl, Turkestan, Kyzylorda, Aktobe and Atyrau regions. Our neighbors, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, also warn about low water on transboundary rivers. During the growing season, they expect the water level to be 20-30% lower than the average annual values.