Russia will continue to worsen its wheat production and export figures not only in the current season, but also in the next one. This forecast was made by Andrey Sizov, head of the SovEcon analytical center.
The 2024 wheat harvest in Russia turned out to be almost 10 million lower than in 2023: 81.8 million tons against 91 million tons. However, this is not the bottom of the decline: due to unfavorable weather in the fall, the winter wheat harvest in Russia next year will be even lower.
This will lead to a further reduction in Russia's presence on the global wheat market.
According to Andrey Sizov's forecast, in the next marketing year (July 2025-July 2026), Russia will supply only 36.4 million tons of wheat to the foreign market. This is 7.3 million tons less than the 43.7 million tons forecast for the current season (2024/25), and 19.2 million less than the record Russian wheat export in the 2023/24 season (55.6 million tons).
Thus, over two seasons, the decline in wheat exports from Russia will exceed 50%.
This lost volume will not be able to compensate for the growth in exports from either Argentina or the United States.
“Wheat is currently undervalued on the global market, so we forecast price growth in the coming months. The market may be supported by the expected reduction in the USDA forecast for Russian exports in the 2024/25 marketing year, which currently still amounts to an optimistic 47 million tons against our estimate of 43.7 million tons,” said Andrey Sizov.
It should be noted that the fall in wheat prices on the US exchange began on December 11. Since then, March futures have fallen from $5.656 per bushel to $5.385 (from $208 to $198 per ton).