In its October review, the International Grains Council (IGC) significantly increased its earlier estimates of the grain harvest in Kazakhstan in 2024. According to experts' estimates, 17 million tons of wheat have been harvested in the country (+1 million tons compared to the September forecast). IGC estimated Kazakhstan's wheat harvest last year at 12.1 million tons.
Taking into account the carry-over balances, the total wheat stock in Kazakhstan is currently estimated at 20.8 million tons. This will allow the country to offer 10.3 million tons to foreign markets. The carry-over balance (by the beginning of July 2025) will be excessive - 4 million tons against the optimal 2 million tons. This fact will put pressure on prices. Currently, about 65 thousand tenge (including VAT) is offered for class 3 wheat from the elevator.
IGC experts estimated wheat production in Russia at 81.8 million tons, which is 9.2 million tons less than last year's figure. Russia's wheat export potential this season is estimated at 43.7 million tons, compared to 55.5 million tons last year.
IGC estimates total global wheat production by major exporting countries this season at 383.5 million tons, down 5 million tons from last year.
Argentina (18.1 million tons, +2.2 million tons), Australia (31.3 million tons, +5.3 million tons), Canada (34.4 million tons, +1.5 million tons), and the United States (53.7 million tons, +4.6 million tons) were able to produce a higher-than-last-year harvest.
Wheat production, in addition to Russia, decreased in the European Union (121.8 million tons, -11.3 million tons) and Ukraine (25.4 million tons, -3 million tons).
Given the decline in production, IGC forecasts a decline in world trade this season to 183.4 million tons, compared to 196 million tons last year.