Moscow. August 31. INTERFAX.RU - Grain harvest in the Russian Federation by the end of August exceeded 105 million tons (in bunker weight). Most experts of the grain market predict the second harvest after the last year's record.
However, there are more worries about its quality than last year, according to a poll conducted by Interfax. If in the southern and some other regions the quality does not cause particular concern and farmers expect to profitably sell their crops, including for export, then in others they do not rule out problems, including losses of up to 10% of the proceeds from the sale of wheat. It turns out like that loaf - well baked in the south, but seriously soaked in the center.
Quartet quality
As Interfax was told at the Grain Quality Assessment Center (a department of Rosselkhoznadzor), according to preliminary estimates as of August 21, the share of food wheat (grades 1-4) exceeds 70% of the surveyed volume. Feed wheat accounts for 29.4%. Wheat tests are carried out according to 15 main quality indicators (protein mass fraction, quantity and quality of gluten, vitreousness, humidity, weed and grain impurities, etc.).
In particular, in the Southern Federal District the share of food wheat was 77.5%, in the North Caucasus - 78.6%.
According to Rosselkhoztsentr, cited by Presidential Adviser - pricing expert of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Rostov Region Yuri Kornyush, quality indicators in the Southern District are higher: 89.9% of the examined grain is occupied by wheat of 1-4 classes. According to preliminary data, this year 39% falls on grade 3 wheat, 65% on grade 4, and 6% on grade 5 wheat.
In the Rostov region, according to the Minister of Agriculture and Food of the region Konstantin Rachalovsky, this year the grain harvest by 1 million tons exceeded last year's historical record (harvested 15.4 million tons), the share of food wheat in it accounts for 82%.
"The average yield this year was 44.4 centners per hectare, which is 5.2% higher than last year. The basis in the Donskoy loaf is 13.7 million tons of winter wheat, which is 446 thousand tons more than last year. In addition, this year a record harvest of leguminous crops was achieved, including peas, the harvest of which amounted to 526.7 thousand tons, which is 2.9 times more than last year," Rachalovsky said.
In the Krasnodar Territory, wheat yields this year are lower than last year (58 centners per hectare versus 67.4 centners per hectare) due to prolonged rains, including during the harvesting period, the regional Ministry of Agriculture reported. However, preliminary data on its quality, as reported by the testing laboratories of the Novorossiysk branch of the Center for Grain Quality Assessment, indicate that more than 80% of the studied volume of wheat refers to food.
According to the Kuban Agricultural Information and Consulting Center under the regional Ministry of Agriculture, out of the surveyed 8.82 million tons of wheat, 58% falls on wheat of the 4th class, 28% - of the third class, 14% - of the fifth class. Thus, the share of food wheat was 86%.
Last year, according to the results of the harvesting campaign, 90% of the total volume of harvested grain was food grain.
In the Stavropol Territory, the share of food wheat accounted for 74.5% of the surveyed volume, including 3 classes - 24.3%, 4 classes - 50.2%, 5 classes - 25.5%, the regional Ministry of Agriculture reported.
"The formation of the crop took place in difficult natural and climatic conditions. Lack of rainfall in the winter period, low temperatures during the resumption of spring vegetation, soil drought during the grain filling period affected the crop," the ministry said.
In the Orenburg region, according to preliminary data from the regional Ministry of Agriculture, Trade, Food and Processing Industry, the share of food grain is 74% of the surveyed volume, feed - 26%. A year ago, these figures were 57% and 43%, respectively.
In Bashkiria, according to the regional Ministry of Agriculture, this year there is more wheat of the 4th class, but there is also wheat of a higher 2nd class - 1%. "The surveyed volumes of wheat and rye are characterized by a high share of wheat of class 4 and rye of class 3. According to preliminary data, the share of wheat of class 4 prevails - 41%. Wheat of class 3 - 17%, class 5 - 40%. The share of rye of class 3 - 56 %," the department said.
The Ministry of Agriculture of the Saratov region also noted that the quality of grain was affected by weather conditions. So far, about 51% of the crop has been examined in the region, of which more than half are food standards. "Since the beginning of the year, 2.3 million tons of grain and products of its processing have been sold outside the region, which is 1.8 times higher than last year's level," the ministry said.
In Dagestan, the main harvest falls on winter wheat - 84%, the Republican Ministry of Agriculture reported. "There are no problems in the sale of grain, since, based on the specialization of Dagestan farms, the grown grain is used for their needs in animal husbandry," the ministry said.
In Chuvashia, according to the data of the republican branch of the Rosselkhoztsentr, as of August 28, 35.2% of the surveyed grain accounted for grade 3 wheat (25.5% a year ago), grade 4 - 48.3% (47.7%), grade 5 - 16.5% (26.8%).
The experts explained that the reason for classifying part of the wheat as class 5 (forage) was, in particular, damage to part of the grain by a bug-tortoise.
Improvement in the quality of wheat this year is noted in Udmurtia. “Our zone does not allow obtaining high-quality grain. There is a lot of rainfall, not enough positive temperatures and poor soil,” said Andrey Lednev, head of the Research Institute of Agriculture of the Udmurt Federal Research Center (UdmFRC), Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences. “But this year we received better grain. If earlier wheat of the fourth class mainly prevailed, then this year there is already more wheat of the third class.
According to him, this is due to weather conditions. "There was dry weather during critical periods, and it was this that contributed to the increase in protein grains, which led to an increase in quality. But less grain was harvested this year due to drought," he said.
The Tatarstan agricultural holding "Krasny Vostok" fixes the quality of wheat higher than last year. Recalling that last year "95% of the grain was forage," the general director of the holding, Adel Khairullin, said that this year the "lack of rain during the harvesting period, which did not wash out the gluten," had a positive effect. "Now we are completing the harvesting of spring wheat, but according to the results of harvesting winter wheat, elevators confirm from 25% to 40% of food wheat with increased protein," he said.
In the export direction
Many regions of the Russian Federation associate their export plans and, accordingly, export earnings with a sufficiently high quality of grain.
According to Kornyush from the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Rostov region, this year the region began to supply grain to Mexico and Indonesia. "Priority areas for increasing exports in 2023 will be the countries of Africa, South America, Asia, primarily China and Vietnam," he said, saying that shipments to Egypt increased by 2.1 times, to Turkey - by 1.8 times. . The third place in the ranking of the main importers belongs to Bangladesh, where 4.4 times more grains were shipped than in 2022. Exports to Pakistan, Libya, Israel and Brazil are on the rise. "In Yemen, it has grown more than 20 times," he added.
Emphasizing that cereals and oil and fat products are the basis of the region's agricultural exports, Kornyush said that this year the export of Rostov agro-industrial complex products has doubled - to 18.1 million tons. In monetary terms, it amounted to $5.789 billion, which is 55.6% more than a year ago.
The Stavropol Territory, as of August 1, exported 450.4 thousand tons of grain against 278.4 thousand tons a year earlier. Most of it is wheat and meslin. "Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia remain the main importers of grain products in the Stavropol region, exports also go to Turkey, Iraq, Egypt," the regional Ministry of Agriculture said.
"There are no problems with exports, cooperation has been established with farmers, and with exporters, and with those who provide cargo transshipment services," the Ministry of Agriculture of the Krasnodar Territory said, noting that export plans would be fulfilled. Grain prices in the department are considered acceptable.
From "slightly below" to "substandard"
At the same time, grain quality is a serious concern in a number of regions.
In the Kursk region, according to the regional Ministry of Agriculture, grain and leguminous crops have already been harvested from almost 90% of the area. The regional branch of the Center for Grain Quality Assessment examined 23% of the collection. The results showed that only 7% of wheat corresponds to class 3, 55% - to class 4, 38% - to class 5.
"In principle, the quality of wheat is not bad - 62% corresponds to food standards. But last year, on this date, the share of food wheat was higher - 65%. There was also more grain, the quality of which corresponds to class 3 - 20%," the ministry said. .
Experts have not yet begun to draw final conclusions about the quality of the grain. "The survey is ongoing, given that a significant part of the grain crop had to be harvested after heavy rainfall, the quality indicators of wheat may change. The current grain harvesting is taking place in difficult weather conditions, associated with frequent and heavy rains, which may negatively affect the quality of the crop" , the branch said.
"In the Oryol region, grain harvesting has shifted by two weeks due to weather conditions, everything that is being harvested is of extremely low quality. It's not even fodder," the acting director said. Irina Gurinovich, Head of the Department for the Development of Technologies in Crop and Livestock Production of the Department of Agriculture of the Region.
According to her, the grain that was harvested in the first place was also not of very good quality. "Then the weather conditions worsened, permanent rains began," she noted.
In Karachay-Cherkessia, "according to preliminary data, the quality of grain is practically at the level of last year, in some cases a little lower," Ruslan Birabasov, head of the mechanization and agriculture department of the Republican Ministry of Agriculture, said. "The harvest has just ended, more accurate data will come later," he said.
According to him, the quality of grain was affected by weather conditions, due to which the timing of some agricultural work was shifted. "But there will be no problems with the sale of grain. Karachay-Cherkessia is a livestock region, even if there is fodder, it will go to feed the animals," Birabasov said.
Minus 10% of revenue
According to a source in one of the Russian agricultural holdings, this year the share of food wheat is about 30%, the rest is fodder. Last year the situation was reversed: forage was about 40%, he noted.
The main problems are sprouting in the ear, fusarium, low gluten.
"Due to the deterioration in the quality of the harvest, the losses of agricultural holdings can be at least 10% of the gross proceeds from the sale of wheat. For a number of companies, these losses can be compensated by an increased fodder yield," he said.
Gurinovich from the department of agriculture of the Oryol region also predicts problems with the sale of grain. "Of course, there will be problems. Last year there was no good price for high-class grain, and this year it will not be even more so, because the quality is worse," she said.
The general director of Krasny Vostok Khairullin is not satisfied with the current prices either. "The biggest problem is that prices have not changed compared to last year. Last year for almost all Volga growers went with a big minus sign - mainly because of the poor price of grain. Unfortunately, now the price situation is not better, and the harvest 28-33% lower in the district than last year," he complained.