World wheat prices ended the previous week with a sharp increase. March futures on the US exchange rose by 3.85% by the end of Friday, to $6 per bushel ($220 per ton).
Andrey Sizov, director of the analytical center "SovEcon", commented on the price increase. He pointed to unfavorable conditions for winter crops both in Russia and the US, since low temperatures have come there with low snow cover. This threatens to freeze part of the area.
At the same time, large buyers entered the market - Algeria (600 thousand tons), Jordan (120 thousand tons), Saudi Arabia (500 thousand tons).
Meanwhile, the price of wheat on the domestic market of Kazakhstan last week fell due to a sharp strengthening of the tenge against the dollar. If at the rate of 530 tenge per $1, buyers from Central Asia offered 120 thousand tenge per ton of hi-pro wheat, then at the rate of 496 tenge per $1, they offer 110 thousand. In foreign currency, the price has not changed - $225 per ton (DAP Saryagash).
Similar dynamics in export prices and for grain of a lower class. For ordinary 3rd class, they are now offering $190/ton.
At the same time, experts recommend that Kazakhstani farmers do not rush to sell their reserves. The official representative of the Grain Union of Kazakhstan, Yevgeny Karabanov, in a comment to the ElDala.kz portal noted that given the low wheat balances in Russia and the bleak prospects for the new harvest, a situation may well arise where the regions of Russia bordering Kazakhstan (affected by bad weather in the fall of 2024) will have to start purchasing wheat in Kazakhstan.
According to the same SovEcon, as of January 1, wheat reserves in Russia amounted to 28.7 million tons. This is 21% lower than last year's level on this date. In its January review, the International Grains Council predicted final wheat stocks in Russia on July 1, 2025, at 9.7 million tons. For comparison, in 2023, final wheat stocks in Russia were almost twice as high, at 15.6 million tons.
In this situation, it is likely that Russia will lift the ban on wheat supplies from Kazakhstan (which is currently in effect). Then it will be easier for the northern regions of Kazakhstan to export wheat to Russia, rather than to Central Asia via the busy Saryagash station. Of course, this will lead to higher prices.
Therefore, for southern neighbors (Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan) this is a signal - do not put off buying Kazakh grain for a long time, but buy it now, while the Russian sales market is still closed for Kazakhstan. After all, there is not only a risk of rising prices, but also quite possible restrictions on wheat supplies from Kazakhstan outside the EAEU, similar to what recently happened with potatoes.
By the way, as of February 1, food wheat reserves in Kazakhstan amounted to 11 million 817 thousand tons. In 2024, Kazakhstan exported about 6 million tons of wheat and meslin.