At the end of March, Kazhydromet developed a forecast of productive moisture reserves in the soil before the start of spring field work and a forecast of recommended sowing dates in the main grain-sowing areas. Nonna Loenko, Director of the Department of Agrometeorological Monitoring of Kazhydromet, spoke about what the second half of spring will be like in Kazakhstan, speaking at a seminar on preparing for field work at KATU named after. S. Seifullin.
The meteorologist recalled that before the start of winter, almost the entire territory of the country had low moisture reserves in the arable layer. At the same time, the accumulation of precipitation was insignificant in winter.
As a result, the amount of winter precipitation above nomes is observed only in the west and east of Kazakhstan. On the territory of the North Kazakhstan region, these reserves are 30% below the norm, in other regions - closer to the norm.
“Spring is late this year, but friendly enough. And on April 1, despite the March snowfalls, the snow cover had already melted over most of Kazakhstan. According to the hydrological forecast, an average risk of low water is expected,” said Nonna Loenko.
In April, weather forecasters predict an average monthly temperature of 1 degree above the norm for most of the republic. Near the norm - in West Kazakhstan, in the far north of Aktobe, in Kostanay, North Kazakhstan regions.
The amount of precipitation is expected to be less than the norm in most of the republic, including in Karaganda, in the south of Kostanay and Akmola regions. Near the norm - in North Kazakhstan region, in the north of Akmola and in the north-east of Kostanay regions.
Optimal reserves of productive moisture before sowing are expected in Karaganda, Almaty and Turkestan regions. From optimal to satisfactory levels, moisture reserves are expected in Akmola, as well as in East Kazakhstan and Zhambyl regions. In the North Kazakhstan and Kostanay regions, the reserves of productive moisture in the soil before the start of field work are expected to be satisfactory.
According to the calculations of meteorologists, in the Kostanay region, optimal moisture reserves are expected only in the Sarykolsky district, as well as in the Mendykarinsky and Fedorovsky regions on fallow. Moisture reserves here range from 81% to 92% of the lowest field capacity. In the rest of the region, satisfactory reserves are 60-79%.
In general, early sowing dates are predicted in the region: in most of the territory it will be from May 3-5 to May 13-15. In Amangeldy and Zhangeldy regions - from April 29 to May 9.
In the North Kazakhstan region, optimal moisture reserves are expected in the vicinity of Vozvyshenka, Zhumabais district, Blagoveshchenka, Zhambyl district, on fallow, and also in Presnovka. According to estimates, moisture reserves here will be 84-86%. In Akkaiyn and Esil districts, moisture reserves are satisfactory, according to calculations, they do not even reach 60%. In the rest of the North Kazakhstan region - within 60-74%.
Meteorologists predict the optimal sowing time for most of the North Kazakhstan region from May 6-8 to May 16-17. And in Akkaiyn, Akzhar, Ualikhanov and Zhumabaev districts, the recommended sowing time is from May 10-11 to May 22.
In the Akmola region, the optimal moisture reserves are expected in the Astrakhan, Shortandinsky, Zerenda, Tselinograd regions. The rest of the territory is satisfactory. The optimal sowing time is predicted in Zhaksyn and Korgalzhyn districts - from May 3 to May 13. In Sandyktau, Burabay, Zerenda and Birzhan sal districts - from May 12-15 to May 23-25. In the rest of the territory between these dates - during the first and second ten days of May.
In the Karaganda region, satisfactory moisture reserves are expected in the Nurinsky district, in other grain-sowing areas - optimal. Sowing dates are forecasted in Shetsky and Zhanaarkinsky districts from May 1 to May 11, in the rest of the territory - from May 5-10 to May 15-20.
“In May, the monthly average air temperature is expected to be near normal in most of the country, and 1 degree higher in the northeast: this is the eastern half of the North Kazakhstan region, Akmola, the northeast of Karaganda, as well as Pavlodar and East Kazakhstan regions,” she said. Nonna Loenko.
According to her, precipitation in May is expected in most parts of the republic within the normal range. Less than normal precipitation is expected in most of the Mangistau region, in the East Kazakhstan region, in the west of Kyzylorda, in the south of Aktobe, in the northeast of Almaty, in Pavlodar and in the extreme northeast of the Karaganda region.
June in most of Kazakhstan, weather forecasters expect hot, with air temperatures 1-2 degrees above normal. Precipitation is forecast to be less than normal. At the same time, as Nonna Loenko emphasized, this forecast is very long in advance, and it will be refined.