Global wheat production, according to the analytics of the US Department of Agriculture - USDA, in 2022-23 MY is predicted to be 4 million tons lower than the current season - 774.8 million tons.
In particular, experts made a downward adjustment against the background of a reduction in grain production in Ukraine, compared to MY 2021-22, by 11.5 million tons - up to 21.5 million tons. Earlier, the Ministry of Agriculture of Ukraine reported a reduction in sown areas due to hostilities.
The decrease in production in Ukraine is not compensated, according to USDA forecasts, by an increase in Canada, where the harvest is expected to be 11.3 million tons more than the previous one - up to 33 million tons. Grain production in Russia, as well as in Kazakhstan, is expected to be higher than the previous season - 80 million tons (in 2021-22 MY - 75 million tons).
However, even with declines in major regions, global production remains strong, ranking third on record.
In turn, the International Grain Council - IGC predicts wheat production in the coming season at the level of 780 million tons, the FAO Food Agricultural Organization - 790 million tons.
In the May review, experts reduced the initial stocks of wheat in MY 2022-23 by 11 million tons. In addition, analysts have reduced the estimate of stocks, compared with the outgoing season, by 11.4 million tons - up to 267 million tons.
The export/import forecast has been increased compared to the previous season by 3.5 and 4.1 million tons, respectively, to:
- 205.2 million tons,
- 201.3 million tons.
It should be noted that with the departure of the Black Sea grain from the global market, importers are switching to Indian wheat.
Domestic consumption, according to experts, in 2022-23 MY will amount to 783.9 million tons, including:
- for seeds - 630.4 million tons (plus 4.5 million tons m / m),
- fodder - 153.5 million tons (minus 8.7 million tons).