Russia insists that all EAEU countries introduce grain quotas and duties. Also, the Russian Federation may extend restrictions on grain supplies to the EAEU, which are still in effect until June 30. It is reported by "Kommersant".
Russia again insisted on the introduction of export restrictions at a meeting of the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) on May 20, sources told the publication. According to them, the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation considers the measure necessary to prevent the re-export of Russian grain through the EAEU, bypassing restrictions.
Since April 19, quotas for the export of soft wheat and meslin have been in effect in Kazakhstan. But the Russian side considers this to be insufficient, since there are no quotas for the export of barley and corn in the Republic of Kazakhstan, and there are no export duties. As a result, there was a significant difference between the domestic prices of the two countries.
It is noted that Siberian wheat today is traded at an average of 18,000 rubles (126,000 tenge) per ton including VAT, which is about 5,000 rubles cheaper than Kazakh wheat.
Back in August 2021, EAEU members planned to introduce a unified approach to limit the export of wheat, barley, corn, sunflower and a number of other goods. But the idea was never realized. Belarus has introduced a complete ban on the export of wheat today. Armenia and Kyrgyzstan are preparing decisions on duties and quotas. Kazakhstan opposes duties, as they may interfere with the fulfillment of international obligations.
Sovecon director Andrey Sizov sees no reason for Kazakhstan to accept the conditions of the Russian side. In his opinion, this will not meet the interests of the farmers of the country, which is a major exporter: together with flour in terms of grain, the total supply reaches 7-8 million tons per season. According to the expert, the goal of the EAEU is precisely free trade, and Kazakhstan could become an important buyer of Russian grain in anticipation of a likely record harvest.
Earlier, Sovecon raised the forecast for the wheat harvest in Russia in 2022 by 1.2 million tons, to 88.6 million tons against the backdrop of the excellent state of winter crops and an increase in the area of spring wheat. In 2021, the wheat harvest in Russia was 76 million tons.
According to a Kommersant source, the likely refusal of Kazakhstan to introduce identical measures will provoke the Ministry of Agriculture to extend a temporary ban on grain exports to the EAEU. Meanwhile, it is important for Kazakhstan to receive Russian grain from July, since the harvest in Kazakhstan actively begins only in August.