RGU expects grain harvest in Russia in the amount of 128 million tons
MOSCOW, May 24. /TASS/. The Russian Grain Union (RGU) believes that grain exports from Russia in the current agricultural year (July 1, 2021 - June 30, 2022) will amount to more than 40 million tons. The quota for the export of wheat and meslin (a mixture of wheat and rye) in the amount of 8 million tons, introduced from February 15 to June 30, 2022, will be fully selected. This assessment was voiced by the vice-president of the union Alexander Korbut during the business conference "Meat and animal feed industry. Prospects for development in 2022".
"We export more than 40 million tons of grain, we will completely close the wheat quota," he said.
Thus, according to Korbut, Russia will be able to stay in first place among the exporters of wheat in the world. He also noted that carry-over stocks of grain for the next agricultural year can even be called excessive. "They would have been reduced by three tons, and there would have been no problems," he added. Korbut stressed that export deliveries are going on despite the difficult foreign policy situation.
At the same time, according to the vice-president of the RGU, there is a problem with the discount when selling Russian grain. “Our wheat, and this is the effect of sanctions, is taken somewhere by $25-50 cheaper than the world price. Our price has always been “a la France” or higher, because we usually had better quality. Now there is a discount, these are the losses that exist, they again fall on the peasant," Korbut explained.
According to him, the situation will improve in the next agricultural season, because export demand "will be crazy." "The world is in a very nervous state and there will obviously be export demand," he concluded.
The Ministry of Agriculture estimates grain exports from Russia in the 2021-2022 agricultural year at the level of 45-48 million tons. The Ministry has not yet given a forecast for wheat supplies for export, however, according to the Grain Quality Assessment Center, the export of this crop may reach 37 million tons. Export of grain from the Russian Federation in 2020-2021 agricultural year (July 1, 2020 - June 30, 2021) amounted to 49 million tons, including 38.4 million tons of wheat.
grain harvest
RGU expects a grain harvest in Russia in 2022 in the amount of 128 million tons, of which 85 million tons will fall on wheat, Korbut said. "This year's harvest - I personally remain on the March forecast, 128 million tons and 85 million tons. It is quite possible that more, but there are risks, something has slowed down with top dressing, for the week of May only plus 100 thousand hectares. Somewhere, maybe the weather had an effect," he said.
According to him, the grain harvest will be good in any case, including the increase in the production of all grains and oilseeds. The exception will be rice, the yield of which will decrease due to an accident at the Fedorovsky hydroelectric complex in the Krasnodar Territory, and sunflower. "We have all the resources, and there will be no problems with them, the only question will be the price," he stressed.
The vice-president of the union also noted that, according to his estimates, the starting price of wheat for the new season will be $370-390 per ton on FOB terms (the seller fulfills his conditions when the cargo crosses the ship at the port of loading - TASS note). "A decrease is possible, because the results for France will change, they promise rains there," he added.
According to Rosstat, the grain harvest in Russia in 2021 amounted to 121.4 million tons, in 2020 - 133.5 million tons.