The World Grain Council in its May review lowered expectations for the production of Kazakh grain in 2022/23 marketing year by 0.5 million tons. Recall that last season Kazakhstan collected the merest harvest in recent years - 15.6 million tons. As for the future Kazakhstani harvest, experts have a reserved opinion. They believe that the country will be able to produce 17.4 million tons of grain, significantly exceeding last year's figure, but not reaching the volumes of prosperous years, when the result exceeded 20 million tons.
Nevertheless, Kazakhstan confidently closes the internal demand of 2.8 million tons, and will import wheat at a minimum - 1 million tons.
Expected export figures are down slightly. We will be able to sell 8.6 million tons of grain abroad, and final stocks have also decreased to 1.2 million tons.
As for wheat, the May forecast promises Kazakhstan 13.2 million tons of this crop (minus 0.3 million tons compared to the April forecast). Expected exports slightly decreased - 7.8 million tons, ending stocks are also slightly reduced - 0.8 million tons.
Meanwhile, in the Russian Federation, whose grain market has a particularly strong influence on Kazakhstan, experts in the May review promised an increase in grain production in 2022/23 marketing year by 2.2 million tons, to 125.3 million tons. Export sales of the northern neighbor will grow by 3 million tons, to 45.2 million tons, in connection with which the volume of ending stocks may decrease to 17.9 million tons.
The forecast for Russian wheat production increased by 2.2 million tons to 84.7 million tons. Export indicators - by 3 million tons, up to 37.1 million tons. Stocks will be reduced to 14.7 million tons.
General market position
The global forecast for the production of all types of grains in 2021/22 mg in May rose by 3 million tons, promising a record 2291 million tons. The main reason is high yields of corn and barley. Given the growing consumption of grain, total world stocks should drop slightly to 607.3 million tons by the end of the season.
Forecasts for world trade have not changed significantly since last month. About 416 million tons will be sold, which is 10 million tons less than last year. Here, apparently, the unstable political situation played a role, and the desire of many countries to make grain reserves.
The forecast for production in 2022/23 has been significantly lowered since last month. This was due to the expectation of a significant reduction in the harvest of corn and wheat. Thus, for the month, the production estimate lost 24 million tons, stopping at 2,251 million tons, which is 40 million tons less than this year.
The forecast for consumption also decreased - by almost the same figure, at 24 million tons, so the indicators of world reserves lost only 1 million tons. Due to the reduction in corn, the total volume of world trade will decrease by 3%, to 404 million tons. A slight decline in trade occurs for the second year in a row. Feed use of grain is constrained by high prices in the market. The result is demand rationing. Total consumption in 2022/23mg could fall by 8Mt to 2279Mt, the first reduction since the 2015/16mg season.
Due to the decrease in the index for the largest grain exporters, the estimate of stocks decreased by 5% to 580 million tons.
Wheat
Wheat production in 2021/22mg should rise. Since the previous month, the indicator increased by 1 million tons, amounting to 781.2 million tons. Consumption will slightly decrease, to 777.6 million tons. Trade is fixed at 193.6 million tons. The volume of reserves is 282.1 million tons.
But in 2022/23 mg, a decline in production is predicted for wheat. The forecast fell by 10 million tons compared to the previous month - 769 million tons. Consumption should increase to 780 million tons. This explains the serious decrease in world reserves by 12 million tons, to 270 million tons.
soy beans
World production of soybeans in 2021/22 mg, according to experts, will decrease by 5% compared to last year, to 349 million tons. This is due to the deterioration of the legume crop in South America. This downturn could lead to supply cuts, consumption and stocks could drop. Moreover, the level of stocks may fall by almost 20% compared to last year.
In 2022/23, the figures should go up. Global production should bounce back, thanks to strong harvests from major legume exporters, and could even reach a record 387 million tonnes. This is +11% from last year.
With demand for bean products growing in the food, feed, and industrial sectors, consumption and inventories are forecast to rise further. Presumably, trade will increase by 8% from last year. This is due to the increase in shipments to Europe, Asia, Africa, as well as to North and South America.
Rice
Forecasts for rice in 2021/22 mg are almost unchanged from last month. A record production of 514.4 million tons is expected. World trade will also peak, due to the large supply of rice to Africa.
Against the backdrop of an increase in acreage in Asia, in 2022/23 mg, world production may increase by another 1%, reaching a new record - 518.5 million tons.
As the world's population grows, food demand will drive consumption to a new peak, which is also fueled by increased feed use of rice. The expansion of production by the largest exporters compensates for a possible decline in other countries. In any case, world reserves will not change significantly - 181.4 million tons. World rice trade will also remain stable at 51 million tons, with African importers expected to buy rice heavily from China.
Corn
The forecast for the corn harvest in 2021/22 mg has grown a little more, to 1213.8 million tons. This season's harvest should be a record one, far ahead of previous years. For example, the gap from last year today is +82 million tons.
Consumption will also be at the highest level of 1207.5 million tons. Stocks will increase to 285.2 million tons. True, trade sags compared to last year by 14 million tons - 174.2 million tons.
However, the next 2022/23 mg promises a significant reduction in yield, to 1183 million tons. This is also a solid figure, much higher than in the 2020/21 season. However, even since last month, the forecast has fallen by 15 million tons.
Consumption in 2022/23 mg promises to exceed the harvest - 1200 million tons. Accordingly, crop stocks will also suffer a loss (minus 16 million tons), up to 269.1 million tons.