The gross grain harvest of the Russian Federation in the new season of 2023 may range from 127 million tons to 131.5 million. Wheat from 80 million tons to 86 million, World of NAN reports with reference to Prime.
The forecasts were announced at the XVI Winter Grain Conference.
The Russian Federation in 2022 collected a record grain harvest – 153.83 million tons in weight after completion, 26.7% more than the previous year's harvest. Including increased wheat harvest – by 37.3%, to 104.44 million tons. At the end of December, the Ministry of Agriculture formed the structure of sown areas for the harvest of 2023, which, according to him, can provide a gross grain harvest of 125-127 million tons, including 80-85 million tons of wheat.
Experts' expectations are still at this level or higher.
"The forecast for the harvest-2023: wheat – 80-81 million tons, 19.5 million tons – barley, 14-15 million tons of corn. In general, the forecast of the grain harvest in 2023 is 127–128 million tons," said Vladimir Petrichenko, CEO of the analytical center "Proserno".
He also noted the improvement in the condition of winter crops.
"At the beginning of winter, there were 3.1% of bad and unperformed winter crops. But in winter there was less snow in the European part of the Black Earth region, in the south. If we compare January 2022 and January 2023, the snow cover is smaller and it is worse. In March, we are promised a temperature swing in Russia. Now the forecast of winter crops is 94-95% good and satisfactory," Petrichenko said.
According to Dmitry Rylko, Director General of the Institute of Agricultural Market Conjuncture (ICAR), in 2023 the gross grain harvest in Russia is still projected at 131.5 million tons, for wheat – at 86 million tons, and the stress scenario is 80 million tons.
"We live in an era when grain prices are on a downward trend – wheat, corn, barley. Reasons: the fight against inflation, the rising cost of money, the decline in effective demand from developing countries. As a result of the super–record wheat harvest in Russia and a large harvest in Australia, the seven largest exporters have more wheat to export than in 2022," Rylko said.
As for the export potential for the new season, 2023-2024 agricultural year (starting from July 1, 2023), it is 53-54 million tons of grain, including 42 million tons of wheat, the expert suggested. The official estimate is higher: The Ministry of Agriculture reported on March 1 that the target for grain exports from the Russian Federation in the 2022-2023 agricultural year is about 60 million tons; the export potential for wheat was previously estimated at 39.5 million tons.