World wheat prices started the week with a sharp increase. If on Friday, April 19, May futures in the United States were at $5.45 per bushel ($200 per ton), then on Tuesday, April 23, it rose to $5.82 per bushel ($213 per ton).
Director of the SovEkon analytical center Andrey Sizov notes that the reason for the growth was a whole set of factors: active grain sales on the market, unfavorable harvest forecasts in the United States, as well as tension in the Black Sea.
Prices on the European stock exchange and in Russian ports have also increased (13,700 rubles FOB in Novorossiysk). Thus, wheat prices for the first time this season exceeded the previous level.
According to Dmitry Rylko, General Director of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies, Russian wheat exports this season for the first time in history will exceed half of all production and amount to 52 million tons (with a harvest of 92.8 million tons).
In the previous marketing year (July 2022/July 2023), 48.1 million tons of wheat were shipped from Russia to the foreign market with a harvest of 104.2 million tons.
Meanwhile, information came from India that wheat stocks in government warehouses fell to the lowest level in 16 years, 7.5 million tons against 8.35 million tons a year earlier. The reason is that the government is selling large volumes to curb inflation in the country.
Average wheat stocks in India in April are usually at 16.7 million tons. The country needs to purchase 30-32 million tons of wheat this year from its own farmers to ensure current consumption and replenish reserves.