Against the backdrop of rising world grain prices, the Kazakh grain market also began to stir. Traders say that the price of non-class grain has increased to 70 thousand tenge. According to them, in May-June it will jump to 80 thousand tenge. Exporters say that the price actually began to rise smoothly by spring. However, no sharp increase is announced. In the future, they expect prices for non-grade grain to rise. As for high-quality grain, flour millers say that there are no prerequisites for price increases, reports the APK News agency.
“Last fall I said that the volume of 4.6 million tons was not true. Then I said that in April you will not find grain even for 70-80 thousand tenge. Now the price has increased to 70 thousand tenge, and good grain goes for even 75 thousand tenge. This too will end soon. And they will go to 4th and 5th grade, then they will take everything in a row. If now the transit tariff for Russia is increased to at least $80-100, then our price will rise by 15-20 thousand tenge for everything, both 4th and 3rd class, and even more so for sprouted food. In May-June, sprouted grain will cost 80-90 thousand tenge. In the fall there was a big notice on the harvest of sprouted grain, and now it is being revealed. Afghanistan could not take 1.2 million tons if exports to Afghanistan showed 600 thousand tons in 6 months. I believe that a maximum of 2 million tons of wet grain went to Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and China. It didn't go away anymore. And we only had 2.5-3 million tons of sprouted grain,” grain trader Amir Butyrkhanov told the APK News agency.
The Association of Grain Exporters KazGrain told us that the price of non-grade grain has not changed much, there is no sharp jump. Analysts show upward dynamics, but very restrained.
“Last week, unclassified grain cost 57 thousand tenge from the farm at the Atbasar station. At the Surgan station they offered me unclassified grain for 58 thousand tenge. The red price was 58 thousand tenge. This is from KH, and with VAT people asked for 62-63 thousand tenge. It is worth noting that a month ago, unclassified grain cost 50 thousand tenge. During Uraza, grain cost 48-50 thousand tenge. By the end of last week, the media reported that grain was already being purchased for 70 thousand tenge. I’ll tell you honestly, no one buys anything. They buy very little, because Uzbekistan still has no demand. Routes to China have not yet been established. For now the price remains the same. But we'll see later this week. In general, we expect growth. There are several reasons. China must open up. There are still 2 months before the Uzbek grain harvest. Until this moment, there should be a certain shortage of grain on the market, which will lead to demand. Therefore, we expect some price increase, but when it will be and to what extent is not yet clear. Because we are not yet seeing active demand from Afghanistan and Uzbekistan,” said Zeinolla Abdumanapov, Chairman of the National Association of Exporters “KazGrain”.
Thus, grain exporters note a gradual increase in prices by spring. According to them, grain grows by 2-3 tenge every month. There is no sharp rise observed. In the future, grain prices are expected to rise, in particular, non-grade ones.
If we talk about class 3 grain, as processors told the APK News agency, there are no prerequisites for an increase in prices for it.
“I think that there is not a lot of grain in the country. There is also no quality of grain. But all this no longer plays any role. Because there is no demand. Demand is falling. The grain that is available and the opportunities that exist for importing grain from Russia will cover this demand. There are leftovers at the mills and traders have leftovers, so time is now working against price increases. Moreover, this year there will be a good harvest in Pakistan, where harvesting will begin soon. In the fall, time worked to increase prices. There were two directions that overlapped. One vector is the overstocking of flour and wheat for future use, the second is the holding of grain by peasants. These two factors pushed the price up. Now no one is stocking up on grain; peasants are throwing away their last year’s harvest. And these two factors work in the opposite direction. I don't think the price will go up. Considering that flour has dropped in price, bran has fallen in price. We are already selling them for 40 tenge. In the fall, we sold them for 70 tenge. I don’t see any prerequisites for growth,” said Timur Isaev, a grain processor from Eastern Kazakhstan.
He also said that he was recently in Russia, where the price remains low.
“Just the other day I came from the Altai Territory, where grain prices are falling. 3rd grade dropped by 1 ruble. The price is now 12-13 rubles including VAT. Feed grain – 8 rubles. Also take into account the weak ruble – 4.8 tenge. All these factors indicate that there will be no price increase. And don’t forget that Russian flour already accounts for 40-50% of the domestic market in Kazakhstan,” the flour miller noted.
Meanwhile, as Russian media report, dry weather has set in in some regions of the Russian Federation, a moisture deficit has arisen, which negatively affects the condition of crops, and abnormal floods are raging in other regions. Therefore, the Russian Federation lowered its yield forecast. The total grain harvest is expected to be 132-135 million tons this year, of which about 86 million tons are wheat. Thus, according to experts, a decrease in harvest volumes creates the preconditions for rising prices. However, they also report that a significant increase in prices should not be expected, since a reduced harvest in the southern regions can compensate for a good harvest in the Volga region.
As for world prices, according to FAO, the forecast for global production has been reduced, but it is still above 2023. In recent weeks, the price of Russian grain exports has risen to $211 per ton.
According to the head of SovEcon, Andrei Sizov, wheat prices continued to rise on Friday.
“World wheat prices rose sharply against the backdrop of the Black Sea news and the massive closing of short positions. Ruble prices for wheat and sunflowers have risen again. “All attention is focused on the weather in the southern regions next week,” Sizov noted.