Wheat reserves in the world may decrease due to bad weather in different parts of the planet and military operations, RBC reports.
On May 10, exchange prices for wheat for July delivery rose to $6.5 per bushel (27.2 kg) on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), reaching their highest since August 2023.
According to Bloomberg, the decline in world wheat reserves continues in the current decade: if in 2020 they amounted to almost 300 million tons, then last year - 271 million tons; for 2024-2025, analysts predict a decrease to 257 million tons in each year .
A further increase in wheat prices due to a reduction in its reserves can be triggered by several factors at once. Bad weather in Russia, where frosts in the central regions have threatened the grain harvest. On May 8, a state of emergency in agriculture was introduced in the Voronezh, Lipetsk and Tambov regions due to the fact that frosts down to minus five degrees were recorded at night, which negatively affected crops. Other regions suffer from lack of rain: for example, in Crimea there was no good rainfall for about two months.
The drought also affected Ukraine. However, fighting there has a greater impact: attacks on agricultural infrastructure and labor shortages.
In Australia, crops were also affected by the summer drought as it was planting time. The situation calmed down later, the rains passed, but if they stop again, the harvest will be in jeopardy. Drought is also threatening the US wheat crop.
In Western Europe, on the contrary, problems arose due to a rainy spring. Precipitation affected the quality of winter crops and crops in the UK, Germany, and France.
As Arkady Zlochevsky, president of the Russian Grain Union (RGU), reported to RBC, analysts are already reducing the forecast for the grain harvest from 145 million tons to 142 million tons. This is not a critical difference. However, against the backdrop of unfavorable forecasts from weather forecasters, this figure may decrease even more, but losses are unlikely to exceed 10% of the harvest.