The current export price for Kazakh hi-pro wheat for Central Asia as of mid-August is $250 per ton (DAP Saryagash). Prices have been falling since early August, and market watchers fear a further fall in September, when mass harvesting begins in the northern regions of the country.
However, there is a downside to the situation: since there is a lot of moisture this year and sowing was late, low-quality grain is expected to be obtained due to the low gluten content. There are concerns that the bulk of the 2024 harvest will not be higher than class 4.
The situation may be aggravated by the fact that in the regions of Russia bordering Kazakhstan, where harvesting has already begun, precipitation does not stop, and there is too much moisture. Russian farmers complain that many wheat fields look like rice paddies, and the grain of the new harvest has problems with the falling number.
If the situation follows a similar scenario in Kazakhstan, high-quality wheat will be in short supply, and its price in September, on the contrary, will skyrocket.
World wheat prices are already rising: September wheat futures on the US exchange ended last week at $5.55 per bushel ($204 per ton). The growth was triggered, firstly, by Algeria's tender for the purchase of 700 thousand tons of wheat at $251-252 per ton; secondly, by the information that Europe will harvest the lowest crop since 2018 this season - 116.5 million tons. Moreover, only Bulgaria and Romania will have high-quality grain, while other producing countries will suffer from rains during the harvest.
As for grain exports from Kazakhstan to China, there is still no clarity with wheat supplies. The Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Kazakhstan previously reported that it had not received any official notifications from China regarding the ban on duty-free deliveries to factories in the bonded zone.
But since these restrictions do not apply to barley, Kazakhstani traders are starting to work with China on barley shipments. The current price for class 2 barley for China is $190 by grain carriers (DAP Alashankou).