Kazakhstan will harvest 16 million tons of wheat this season (versus 12.1 million tons last year). This will allow the country to export 10.3 million tons versus 8.8 million tons in the 2023/24 season. This forecast is presented in the August review of the International Grains Council (IGC).
Also, thanks to the high harvest, Kazakhstan will be able to reduce wheat imports from 2 million tons in the 2023/24 season to 1.2 million tons.
The wheat harvest in Russia is forecast at 81.8 million tons versus 91 million tons last year. In this regard, the Russian Federation will export 43.2 million tons of wheat versus last year's record of 56.1 million tons.
Also among the regions where the wheat harvest this season will be lower than last year are Ukraine (25.4 million tons versus 28.4) and the European Union (124.8 million tons versus 133.1).
The exporting countries where wheat production will increase, in addition to Kazakhstan, are the United States (53.9 million tons versus 49.3), Canada (34.9 million tons versus 32), Australia (30.1 million tons versus 26), and Argentina (18.4 million tons versus 15.9).
Wheat production will also increase in two large importers - China will receive 140 million tons of wheat versus 136.6 million tons last season, and India - 112.9 million tons versus 110.6.
Overall, IGC expects global grain production to reach a new peak in the 2024/25 agricultural season, increasing by 16 million tons, including an increase of +5 million tons in wheat, to 799.1 million tons.
Production of corn (+3 million), sorghum (+3 million), oats (+2 million) and barley (+1 million) will also increase.
At the same time, with limited opening stocks, overall supplies are expected to be unchanged from the previous season. And with consumption set to continue to rise, ending grain stocks are set to decline again, down 1% to 581 million tonnes, a 10-year low. Partly due to larger harvests in a number of key markets, world trade is set to fall by 35 million tonnes to 419 million tonnes year-on-year.